Economic progress is not secured by policy announcements alone; the daily discipline of institutions sustains it. This reality sits at the heart of Nigeria’s current economic moment. While recent macroeconomic indicators suggest a gradual return to stability following a demanding reform cycle, experience shows that recovery remains fragile where governance is weak, inconsistent, or reactive.

Headline indicators point to cautious stabilisation rather than rapid expansion. Projected GDP growth of about 4.5 per cent and easing inflationary pressures indicate renewed balance, yet stability brings its own governance test. In times of crisis, poor decisions are often excused as unavoidable. In periods of improvement, however, misjudgment becomes harder to justify.

Source: CBN, NBS &DMO

As volatility declines, expectations rise. Investors, regulators, and the public demand stronger oversight, clearer strategy, and greater transparency. Boards can no longer rely on disruption narratives to explain weak controls or opaque reporting. Instead, the burden shifts decisively toward foresight, consistency, and disciplined decision-making. Governance, in this context, moves beyond compliance to become a strategic asset.

This moment of macroeconomic calm must therefore be treated as a narrow window for institutional strengthening, not an invitation to relax standards. Public debt levels, although moderate, further underscore the need for prudence and a long-term orientation at the board level.

Government expenditure priorities also provide important signals for corporate strategy. Significant allocations to security underscore the direct relationship between stability and enterprise—without safety, investment stalls. Infrastructure spending underscores the increasing reliance on private capital to bridge financing gaps, highlighting opportunities for public-private collaboration. Meanwhile, sustained focus on education and health reflects recognition that productivity begins with human capital. Boards that align long-term investment strategies with these priorities position their organisations closer to relevance, resilience, and policy coherence.

Source: CBN, NBS & DMO

Beneath these fiscal signals, however, lies a persistent structural imbalance in the real economy. Services dominate output, agriculture remains resilient, yet manufacturing contributes a disproportionately small share of GDP. This imbalance limits job creation, weakens export capacity, and constrains industrial depth. For directors in industrial and manufacturing firms, the implication is clear: without deliberate productivity gains, energy efficiency improvements, and scale-driven expansion, manufacturing will remain unable to serve as a driving force for development.

The evolving fiscal and regulatory environment further elevate governance expectations. The Nigeria Tax Act 2025 simplifies tax administration and removes nuisance levies that previously distorted business planning. Yet simplification also increases visibility. Digital enforcement reduces discretion, strengthens monitoring, and raises the cost of non-compliance. Boards must therefore reposition tax oversight as a core governance responsibility rather than an administrative afterthought. Transparent compliance has become integral to corporate credibility, influencing investor confidence and access to global markets.

Similarly, the ongoing recapitalisation of the banking sector is reshaping access to finance. Higher capital thresholds enhance systemic resilience but also sharpen lending criteria. Capital will increasingly flow to firms with credible governance frameworks, competent boards, and reliable disclosures. Governance quality is thus becoming a determinant of funding availability, not an abstract principle reserved for audits and annual general meetings.

Recent activity in the mergers and acquisitions landscape reinforces this reality. Transactions across the energy, logistics, and port sectors reveal a clear trend toward consolidation, scale, and vertical integration. Sub-scale operators, particularly in regulated sectors, face shrinking margins and rising compliance costs. Boards must make difficult choices: pursue alliances, merge with stronger platforms, restructure operations, or risk being gradually displaced. Avoiding these decisions does not preserve independence; it erodes competitiveness.

As Nigerian firms become increasingly integrated into regional and continental value chains, their governance responsibilities expand accordingly. Cross-border operations demand closer attention to competition law, tax planning, currency exposure, and group-wide risk management. Governance can no longer stop at national borders; it must extend to encompass capital, data, and operational complexity.

Beyond restructuring and scale lies a broader socio-economic obligation. Food inflation continues to consume a disproportionate share of low-income household earnings, making food security both an economic and moral imperative. Businesses across agricultural value chains must treat logistics inefficiencies, storage gaps, and input volatility as strategic risks requiring innovation and sustained investment. Addressing these challenges supports economic stability, rural income growth, and market expansion.

At the same time, progress in domestic refining capacity and gas-to-power initiatives is reshaping Nigeria’s energy landscape. Greater cost predictability is becoming attainable. Boards that engage strategically with these developments can stabilise operating expenses, improve margins, and enhance competitiveness. Those who ignore them remain exposed to avoidable volatility.

Social policy developments are also increasingly intersecting with corporate strategy. Expanded direct benefit transfers are projected to lift millions out of poverty, gradually broadening consumer markets. This reframes social protection not merely as welfare, but as a means of economic participation. Directors who recognise this shift early can design products and services that meet emerging demand, turning inclusion into growth rather than charity.

These forces converge toward a single conclusion: governance determines outcomes. Expectations placed on the board now extend well beyond formal compliance. Accountability must be transparent, risk oversight must be active, and sustainability reporting must be credible. The adoption of IFRS Sustainability Disclosure Standards confirms that environmental and social conduct now shape access to capital, regulatory trust, and market reputation.

For technology and fintech boards, governance readiness carries particular weight. With trade sales emerging as the dominant exit route, valuations increasingly reflect institutional quality rather than user growth alone. Clean capital structures, audited financials, cybersecurity resilience, and robust data governance are no longer preparatory steps—they are signals of seriousness to potential acquirers.

Ultimately, Nigeria’s economic direction will not be determined solely by policy frameworks, monetary tools, or budgetary allocations. It will be determined daily in boardrooms, through decisions that prioritise integrity over expedience and strategy over impulse. Strong economies are built on strong institutions, and strong institutions begin with accountable leadership.

The defining challenge, therefore, is not ambition but stewardship. Governance is not a constraint on growth; it is the condition that allows growth to endure. In this sense, boards are not merely overseers of enterprises; they are guardians of stability, entrusted with aligning private interests and public good in a fragile yet hopeful economic moment.

Research Unit